By The Company He Keeps...

Porcupine is writing this at 11:30 am on Friday, August 22, 2008. (Note: Due to the genuinely crappy Internet connection available on Cape Cod during the summer, Porcupine has been unable to access the Internet until just now - over 24 hours later. The good new is, Obama has chosen to drag out his selection for all this time - impossibly heightening expectations, but making Porcupine's blog on the matter still germane.)

At this moment, Barack Obama has not announced his choice for Vice President, a decision which will tell us a great deal more about Obama than the person he chooses.

Hillary Clinton? Sen. Clinton is in a unique position – she alone is able to unite BOTH parties. The PUMA Democrats and Democratic women will be better able to unite behind Obama (although there will be some residual resentment of such a Bright Young Thing being promoted over the head of a better qualified woman, doubtless a familiar scenario to many). On the Republican side, any lingering doubts over McCain’s conservative bona fides will vanish at the prospect of an unoccupied Bill Clinton being once again in Washington near the seat of power.

Gov. Sibelius? Choosing a different woman than Hillary will only further enrage the PUMA women, and Obama seems smarter than that.

Obama’s choice comes down to two – the Trusted Older Counselor or the Vigorous Cohort.

Joe Biden is the archetype of the former. Indeed, an inexperienced Governor chose the foreign policy expert and insider as Vice President in 2000, and the selection of Dick Cheney allayed many fears about George Bush’s foreign policy credentials. Porcupine wonders if Obama wants to choose the same path. Further, as one wag said, Joe Biden is the smartest guy in the room – just ask him, and he’ll tell you. Is Obama’s somewhat touchy ego up to partnering with a vice President who may at times appear smarter and more experienced than he?

Tim Kaine is the latter – a popular and vigorous Governor, who would be so grateful for his chance at the world stage that he would never risk outshining ‘The One’, and who would work hard to push Obama’s agenda and ideas with the public. Hardly an ego threat.

Porcupine is of the opinion that it is the Vigorous Cohort who will be chosen, out of deference to Obama's prickly ego, but we shall soon see who comes out that door – Not a Lady, but perhaps a Tiger…

Now THIS Is Rich!

From Ben Smith's column on Politico:

Harry Smith asked if after the nominating contests end with the South Dakota and Montana primaries on June 3, "Do you want the superdelegates to have some sort of vote immediately so that you'll know months in advance of the convention what the outcome is?” Dean replied: “Well, I think the superdelegates have already been weighing in. I think that there's 800 of them and 450 of them have already said who they're for. I'd like the other 350 to say who they're at some point between now and the first of July so we don't have to take this into the convention.”

An aide explains that July 1 is not a drop-dead deadline: "The point is before the convention, ideally in June."

Dean has been criticized for not taking a heavier hand in ending the bruising contest.
The aide elaborates on the chairman's thinking: "Dean is personally engaged in this process, he's had numerous conversations with over 60 leaders inside and outside of the Democratic Party, to hear their thoughts, get their input and encourage them to help reinforce the importance of keeping the party united behind our nominee in November. ... He does not want to discuss those conversations publicly because in Washington, you can work behind the scenes and not worry about getting credit and actually get something done -- or you can talk about it in the press and not get anything done. But ... he wants to see this resolved before the convention and will encourage the superdelegates to make their choice known once the voters in the remaining states have had their say."

In an interview with AP's Nedra Pickler, Dean also made it clear he wants to get the show on the road. "There'll be some nasty fights if it goes to convention, and people will walk out," he told Nedra. "But I've also been talking to a fairly significant number of, by and large, nonaligned people about how we might resolve this." Nedra adds: "Dean wouldn't talk in detail about what the plan is, but it likely involves encouraging superdelegates to pick a candidate shortly after the voting ends."

So Chairman Dean wants all the unseemely muss done with, eh? "Ideally in June", he says. Chairman Howard Dean is the rocket scientist who created this problem in the first place!

You see, the party which does NOT hold the White House gets to choose the time of its convention, and the party which DOES hold the White House must hold its convention afterwards. When looking at the twenty-odd announced candidates, Howard Dean saw a great deal of potential for animosity and bad blood on the Republican side, while Hillary Clinton was assumed to be the inevitable nominee of the Democrats. So Chairman Dean himself chose the end of August for the Democrats to hold their convention, forcing the Republicans to hold theirs on Labor Day weekend. It seemed like a good idea at the time - a GOP bloodbath that would rankle all summer.

Be careful what you wish for, Mr. Chairman - the GOP has chosen a candidate, and the stresses on the Democrats caused by your timeline will not be easily mended. For Howard Dean, the architect of disaster to piously intone that the campaigns must cease in June and the Super Delegates must choose at the time invites an obvious question - gee, Howard, why didn't you schedule the convention for then?

The Second Face of Janus - 2008

Below are Porcupine's Predictions for the year 2008.

As the Roman God looks into the future, here are some predictions for 2007. First, like last year, these are predictions from last year that Porcupine still believes will come to pass.

Justice John Paul Stevens will die this year, giving Bush his third choice for the Court.

Fidel Casto will die, and Congress will seize the opportunity to normalize relations with Cuba.

While for 2007, they netted Porcupine a score of Zero, Porcupine believes it it a matter of - not yet....

Here are the others in no particular order:

Gov. Deval Patrick will file his second budget as Governor with a heavy reliance on gambling revenues to justify expansions in local aid, making it clear that without a casino bill, local aid will be cut. Speaker Sal DiMasi will retaliate with a House budget that guts all of the Governor's pricey new initiatives like biotech and the housing funding, and will make it clear that the Legislature will not spend money that it does not and may never have. It will fall to Senate President Therese Murray to make peace, telling the Governor that you can't write a budget with pie-in-the-sky revenue forecasts, and telling DiMasi that money can be found in a reasonable way. Her brokering of the situation catapults her into power, setting her up to become the Billy Bulger of the 21st century.

The House will lose its leader as Speaker Sal DiMasi will not finish out the Session in his current position. The battle ro replace him will be between John Rogers and Gene O'flaherty at first, but it is Ron Mariano who will emerge as the next Speaker.

Governor Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination for President, and Sen. Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination. Gov. Romney will be elected the 44th President of the United States.

Casino gambling will not be legalized in Massachusetts by the Legislature, but the Wampanoags will push ahead with their Middleboro casino plan after the Federal Government places their land in trust; it will be profitable enough to begin with poker and roulette, as they will not have to pay the state and the tribe will begin to lobby for the legalization of slots in 2009, supported by Suffolk Downs and other racetracks, who also want slot machine gambling.

Yarmouth will become the first town to vote to leave the Cape Cod Commission, with at least one other town joining the quest for special legislation. The charm offensive of the new director, Paul Niedzwicki, will not be enough to convince the towns that the Commission is worth the trouble or taxes any longer.

Barnstable's Charter Commission will recomment that Barnstable become the first city on Cape Cod, with a Plan E 'strong manager-weak mayor' government. This charter will be narrowly defeated, due mainly to disapproval of seeking city status, and the Charter Commission will continue its work into 2009.

Long time County Commissioner Mary LeClair will be replaced with a Democrat, the first crack in the long time Republican domination of county government. Controversial District Attorney Michael O'Keefe will be re-elected handily.

The Cape Wind wind farm project will receive the go-ahead from the Minerals Management Services, and Sen. O'Leary's ocean zoning bill will not pass in this Session, and its obstructionism will become moot. The Cashman project in Buzards Bay in the marine sanctuary will not be approved, however.

Porcupine had an average score of 48% for 2007 predictions - not bad, considering two out of ten were zero. But he can do better!

See you New Year's Eve, 2008, to see how accurate these are!

Swing Yer Partner, Promenade RIGHT...

The Clintons and the Romneys discover a heretofore unknown mutual passion for square dancing at the Fourth of July Parade in Iowa...