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Monday, December 31, 2007

The First Face of Janus - 2007 Scored

Below are Porcupine's Predictions for the year .

So what was Porcupine's track record for 2007? These were predictions from New Year's Eve, 2006 that Porcupine still believed would come to pass.

Cape Cod will be hit by a Category 2 hurricane.

Score - 40%. We did not have a direct hit, but Hurricane Noel did bring the Cape to a halt, and served as an excellent dress rehersal for the 'Big One' that will hit soon enough.

At least one town will vote to leave the Cape Cod Commission.

Score - 80%. Yarmouth did have such an article pass its town meeting, but the referendum was delayed by the Board of Selectmen. Now, in its December special town meeting, the people have firmly indicated that they WILL have a vote on this in the spring. Porcupine suspects that the article was intended as a bargaining chip by the Yarmouth Selectmen in negotiating a change in the freeze on motel redevelopment with the Commission. The Selectmen got what they wanted, but now have a tiger by the tail as the PEOPLE of Yarmouth still demand a vote.

Justice John Paul Stevens will die this year, giving Bush his third choice for the Court.
Score - Zero Percent. Dead Wrong.

The Massachusetts Constitutional Convention will vote to send the Definition of Marriage petition to the ballot in this Session, and will spend the forthcoming Session trying to find a way so it will move no further.

Score - 20%. The vote was held, due to the intestinal fortitude of Senate President Murray, but the Legislature was willing to go on record that the electorate of Massachusetts is too dumb to appreciate nuance and vote on anything of any import - oh, except returning them to office, of course.

Fidel Casto will die, and Congress will seize the opportunity to normalize relations with Cuba.

Score - Zero; not yet....

Gov. Deval Patrick will decide that the most effective way to study the issue of auto insurance is to hold a series of populist statewide hearings, which will allow people to tell their stories and inform the State of their troubles, in consequence of which nothing will be done or accomplished.

Score - 50%. The Governor did indeed begin with a listening tour, but the forthright actions of his new Insurance Commissioner, Nonnie Burns, allowed the guidelines to be set - how they will acturally effect people is still up in the air.

The House will hold a coup, and Speaker Sal DiMasi will not finish out the Session in his current position. Senate President Traviglini will choose to avail himself of opportunities in the dreaded private sector, and Sen. Therese Murray will become the first woman President of the Masachusetts Senate.

Score - 70%. Traviglini did leave, Murray did become the first woman President, but DiMasi is holding on for now - although it remains to be seen if he will finish out the Session as Speaker.

Although Sen. John Kerry will not run, former Governor Mitt Romney will run for President, and will be in the top tier as we head to 2008 and the nominations.

Score - 100%. And really, a year ago, who'd a thunk it that Massachusetts could field two major Presidential candidates in two election cycles?.

Gov. Deval Patrick will advocate both alloing casino gambling in Massachusetts and eliminating the bond cap in order to finance his varied campaign promises. The first will not come to pass in 2007, but the second will.

Again, 100%; no, really, 95%. Gov. Patrick did not entirely eliminate the state's voluntary bond cap - put in place by Gov. Weld to save the state's credit rating, and hewed to even during the very dark days of 2001-2002 - but merely substantially raised it, during a booming economy.

Scandals will erupt in mainstream media; collusion and price fixing in legal ads and notices will be exposed. Further consolidation among newspapers and television outlets will result in even more rigidly enforced corporate points of view, and factual, accurate local news coverage will be threatened by agenda-driven reporting.

25% - while there has been intimatons of these problems, none have yet emerged in open scandal - like Fidel Castro, not yet...

Which gives Porcupine an average score of 48% - not bad, considering two out of ten were zero.

Stop back tomorrow, and Porcupine will reveal the Second Face of Janus - Porcupine's Predictions for 2008!


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