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Sunday, December 31, 2006

The First Face of Janus - Redux

Below are Porcupine's Prediections for the year 2006, originally posted Dec. 31, 2005, and a comment and score - on a scale of ten - on each for accuracy:

As the Roman God looks into the future, here are some predictions for 2006 in no particular order:

The economy will continue to rebound, and there will be another act of terrorism on US soil. Between the two factors, the 2006 elections will see the GOP keep control of the House and Senate, but with only modest gains, forcing the Bush to more compromise to complete their agenda.

4 points - the overall economy did continue to do well, with the Dow Jones hitting a record high despite gas prices, but the GOP lost control of Congress with a modest loss; indeed, the Senate is still in play due to the sad illness of a single member. Bush will indeed have to compromise.

The Dennis-Yarmouth Regional School District will begin its formal split, but the negotiations will go well into 2007. The regional formula allocation will be upheld in the interim by the Department of Education.

1 point - a piecemeal solution has been reached, but the compromise may not prove long-lasting. The Regional Formula is still in use by the towns.

Samuel will be confirmed as a Supreme Court Justice after a brutal filibuster, but Frist will not have to exercise the ‘nuclear option’. Justice John Paul Stevens will die this year, giving Bush his third choice for the Court. Roe vs. will not be overturned in the cases pending now before the Court.

7 points - Alito was confirmed, there was no 'nuclear option' used, Roe vs. Wade was not overturned, but Justice Stevens has not died. Yet.

At least one town will vote to leave the Cape Commission, and at least one other Cape town will vote to adopt a split tax rate in response to the new senior tax credits.

Zero points - In 2006, Barnstable remains the only town with a split tax rate, but Porcupine still expects this predicion to prove accurate.

There will be further changes at the Mass. Maritime Academy, and more trustees will resign and others will not be reappointed.

10 points - Gov. Romney fulfilled his mission to make the Board more responsive and trustworthy, and after the court case, there were more resignations and reappointments.

Donald will be elected Governor of New York State, and will revitalize the GOP there. Weld will go on even more deer hunting trips, and will write a new mystery novel. Clinton will also be reelected in a landslide victory.

4 points - Hillary was indeed reelected, Weld has been off in the forest, but there has been no new book and The Donald has elected to revitalize Miss USA instead of the New York GOP.

Cape Cod will be hit by a Category 2 hurricane.

Zero points - A bullet dodged, once again.

The first case of avian flu will be diagnosed in the US, causing panic as vaccine will be difficult to obtain. There will be rationing, and criticism of the criteria used.

Zero Points - thank goodness!

Sen. Ted will make more seditious remarks, for which he will be praised by the liberal press.

9 points - Porcupine cannot accept the full 10 points, as this was such a foregone conclusion.

The Cape project will receive approval from the Federal authorities, but suit will be filed in Federal Court to block permitting of the project, which will run into 2007.

5 points - Important Federal permitting issues were decided, and court challanges were dismissed, but the issue remains far from resolved.

Mihos will choose not to run as an Independent, and will cede the primary to Kerry , who will face intense pressure to name him as her choice for Lt. Governor. Instead, he will run for State Auditor and will win. Patrick will run an aggressive campaign, but will lose the primary to the better funded and organized Reilly. Allegations that surface about Reilly’s work with the CIA in 1965 regarding Viet Nam and the coup in Indonesia will further damage him with progressive Democrats, and Kerry Healy will be elected Governor of Massachusetts.

Minus 2 Points - A less than zero score is needed here for such inaccuracy. Porcupine must predict what he thinks will happen, instead of what he hopes will happen!

Rep. DeLay will be convicted of only one minor charge pending against him, requiring only a fine, but that will force him to leave any leadership position. He will be reelected despite the conviction, and his resignation would be moot. Hastert will continue as Speaker, and Blunt as Majority Leader.

6 points - DeLay did leave leadership, and he did appear on the Texas ballot, but the change in the House and Senate changed the Speaker and Leader positions.

On Cape Cod, all Legislative incumbents will be reelected, although Atsalis will face a narrow victory, and Turkington a narrower one. Don Howell will be elected to fill Rep. Shirley Gomes seat, triumphing over Sarah Peake, whose vicious primary battle with Ray Gottwald will cost her both money and popularity. Bill Doherty will defeat Tom Bernardo after a difficult campaign.

8 points - As predicted all incumbents were reelected, and Bill Doherty did win his Commissioner election. Howeer, Don Howell failed to win the Republican primary, allowing Sarah Peake to be elected.

And now, on to 2006!

Well, out of a potential 130 points, Porcupine self-scored only 52 - less than half. Tomorrow, Porcupine will post his 2007 predictions, and will be more rigorous and less optimistic - and we shall see how he does in 2008!


Blogger Drew said...

So much for optimism...

Happy new year!

9:10 AM  
Blogger montchan said...

Hi! Thanks for having me over this week!
happy new Year!

Montchan from By The Way...

11:14 AM  

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